With series seven of the BBC’s Great British Bake Off starting next week, the boffins at Marketing Metrix are taking the heat in the kitchen once more by trying to replicate last year’s performance, when they successfully predicted that Nadiya would come out on top.
The analysts decided to develop an algorithm to predict the types of contestants most likely to reach the final, namely “the finalist forecasting formula”, which yielded some interesting results.
Mothers aged 30 to 40 and retired women with a passion for pastry have an over 90% chance of reaching the final when compared to other contestant types. Whereas if you are a young working male residing in the South East of England with a preference for baking biscuits, the odds are against you.
Also in terms of region, those from Yorkshire and the Humber or the North West of England tend to have the edge, while residents of the South East fall at the soggy bottom of the pile. Candidates who are in full-time employment or completely self-taught are at a disadvantage, with their lack of free time and grandma’s secret recipe proving very detrimental.
This year’s contestants have been deemed the most eclectic mix yet. The baker’s dozen have been run through the formula and ranked in order of their likelihood of reaching the final.
Information was compiled about each of the 71 contestants and 54 episodes from series one to six to form one dataset. This dataset was then audited to reveal a bit more about the contestants and assess if there were the correct ingredients for an algorithm. The audit uncovered some interesting demographic results.
With 52% of contestants being female they were fairly evenly spread in terms of gender, the majority of contestants were in full time employment whilst on the show and the mean average age was 38. In terms of their favourite thing to bake, contestants tended to prefer cakes as opposed to bread, pastry or biscuits and 28% claimed to be completely self-taught.
The next stage was to use a complex statistical technique called logistic regression modelling to develop the formula itself. The technique identifies how various characteristics affect contestants’ likelihood of reaching the final. This information was then used to create an equation where the contestant demographics are input and their probability of reaching the final is output.
So, who are the contestants to look out for? Kate, Michael and Candice look likely to rise higher than a souffle; but for Louise, Jane and Lee it appears it is all going to be rather flat. But, hey, don’t blame us, it’s all in the data…
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