Scots will vote ‘no’, says the data

Scotland will vote to stay in the UK in next week’s independence referendum, according to a data analysis carried out by Equimedia, although the result is still likely to be as tight as a Scotsman’s purse.
With many retailers now warning of higher prices if the “yes” camp wins – Sainsbury’s today added its voice to John Lewis Partnership’s predictions – and financial institutions threatening to pull out of the country, pressure is mounting on the nationists.
Paul Wojciak, planning analyst at equimedia, said: “Our analysis produced last Friday [which predicted a significant swing back towards more historic share levels for the ‘No’ campaign] is beginning to be validated. Data indicates a general ‘Pro-Union’ slant within mainstream media, which interestingly has been picked up by the ‘Yes’ campaign, identifying this as an organised attempt to swing voting intentions particularly around ‘big business’ stories.
“As with all campaigns, without mainstream media backing, victory is always unlikely. For the ‘Yes’ campaign to gather lost ground they will need to win over media at a top level which is looking increasingly unlikely.
“While last week’s activity was definitely a boost for the ‘Yes’ camp, recent visits by main party leaders accompanied by mass media support has managed to stem the tide. ‘No’ campaign timing may be slightly better as momentum has shifted significantly in recent days however social signals show a renewed push from ‘Yes’ campaign supporters.
“Overall however, while we expect a small narrowing in the next few days we are still maintaining our long held view of a small but measurable win for the ‘No’ campaign.”