'Balançar a rede': Boffins pick the World Cup winners

The football pundits may bang on about the individual magnificence of Messi, the resplendence of Ronaldo and the majesty of Mbappe but ultimately it will be the brilliance of the Brazil team which will triumph at the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

That is the verdict of a new analysis by Serasa Experian’s DataLab – the Brazilian arm of the data giant – which has used machine learning techniques to project the World Cup qualification and tournament winners.

The model was developed using information from the previous three football World Cups, and forecasts the likely outcome of each match using algorithms that are similar to those used by streaming services to recommend shows to users.

It is fair to say that Matchweek One threw up some shock results, with both Argentina and Germany failing to defeat Saudi Arabia and Japan respectively, and, although Germany still have plenty of work to do to qualify for the next stage, Argentina have recovered with victory over Mexico.

Elsewhere, England have been blowing hot and cold, with the 6-2 defeat of Iran tempered by the 0-0 against the USA. Spain, meanwhile, thrashed Costa Rica 7-0 but were held by Germany.

So far, France are the only team to have won two games.

But, according to the boffins at least, Brazil have a 20.9% chance of winning the Cup this year – which would be their first for 20 years and a record sixth trophy – and a 53.4% chance of making it to the semi-finals.

Meanwhile, Argentina are in second spot with a 14.3% chance, followed by France (11.4%), Spain (9%) and Germany (3.4%).

Yet those hoping for the World Cup to be “coming home” with England could be disappointed; it seems the only thing that will in fact be coming home is the England team – and early.