Trump's trade war set to hit global advertising spend

US president Donald Trump’s obsession with trade tariffs is not only giving UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves a headache, it is also hitting the global advertising market, with new figures downgrading growth for the next two years.

A new study from WARC, has found that global adspend is on course to grow 6.7% this year to $1.15trn, a downgrade of almost one percentage point from WARC’s November forecast due to growing market volatility. A further cut of 0.7pp has been applied to 2026, downrating growth to 6.3%.

The underlying factors for these downward revisions are wide ranging, but core among them is the rising risk of stagflation – or outright recession – across major economies, compounded by heightened costs being levied on trade by the US.

Tightening regulation in the European Union, squeezed margins and low business and consumer confidence are also contributing factors.

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.

These include macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is claimed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.

The Trump administration still intends to introduce new reciprocal tariffs with all trading partners on April 2, aside a blanket 20% hike already imposed on China and similar punitive measures pending for Canada and Mexico.

WARC believes the impacts of trade fragmentation will begin to be felt in the advertising market from the second half of this year, before becoming more pronounced during the first half of 2026.

WARC’s preliminary estimate for ad market growth in the UK last year stands at +10.2%, though this is due to be confirmed next month as part of the AA/WARC Expenditure Report. The UK’s ad market is highly digital, with online ads accounting for four in five (82.6%) ad dollars. We believe the UK’s ad market will grow by 7.1% to a value of $52.6bn this year, though this is tempered to a 5.0% rise after accounting for inflation.

WARC director of data, intelligence and forecasting James McDonald, who is author of the report, said: “The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation, and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors – leading us to cut growth prospects by $20bn over the next two years. Automakers, retailers, and tech brands in particular are now reigning in ad spend amid rising manufacturing costs and mounting supply chain pressures.

“Despite the growing volatility, digital advertising remains strong, led by three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – on course to control over half of the market in 2029. Regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US further compound risks to growth, however, advertisers must be nimble in order to seize initiative in this shifting landscape.”