Supermarket sweep: Shoppers buy into Labour offers

The pundits might still be cautious over a Labour Party victory in the July 4 General Election but if supermarket shoppers are anything to go by Keir Starmer needs to start packing his belongings and getting ready to move into No 10 on July 5.

So says a new GlobalData Retail study, which quizzed 3,177 UK consumers to gauge their voting intentions by their primary supermarket.

Labour voters are in the majority across all major supermarkets, with Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Lidl and Aldi shoppers swinging from Conservative to Labour since 2019.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Waitrose shoppers – notoriously never short of a bob or two – are sticking with the Tories, although even in the land of the well-heeled, the margin has narrowed significantly.

Labour is over 20 percentage points ahead at grocers with a value focus Asda, Iceland, Aldi and Lidl but in a blow to Ed Davey, Reform UK has pushed the Liberal Democrats into fourth position in all supermarkets except Sainsbury’s.

GlobalData lead retail analyst Zoe Mills said: “If supermarkets were seats, Labour would be on course for a landslide victory, according to our supermarket election poll.

“Our survey shows that Labour holds a majority at all major supermarkets, except the most traditionally Conservative stronghold, Waitrose. However, even there Starmer’s party is just 1.2 percentage points behind.”

The portents are certainly not good for the Tories. When GlobalData carried our a similar study during the 2019 election, the Conservatives held sway in all supermarkets except Asda and the Co-op, having enticed Morrisons’ shoppers to vote blue and holding onto both Aldi and Lidl, which had previously been Labour in our pre-2017 election polls.

Mills added: “Conservatives are doing comparatively better at M&S and the Co-op, the only supermarkets where they do not trail Labour by double-digit percentage points, and which they might have held were it not for the emergence of Reform UK.

“The party formerly known as The Brexit Party has overtaken the Lib Dems and is third favourite in all supermarkets except Sainsbury’s. The Green Party is still in fifth place across most locations, but has made some progress, especially in the larger supermarkets.”

“While supermarket owners are generally not shy of sharing their political allegiances, especially in the run-up to elections, they should be mindful of the political make-up of their customers, lest they alienate significant numbers of them.”