The global retail media market may be continuing to grow and evolve, with ad investment projected to reach $223bn by 2027, but brands are being warned of the dangers of “enshittifying” the shopper experience by piling on too many advertising spots, as networks look to meet ambitious targets.
So says WARC’s “Future of Commerce Media 2026” report, which reveals that, once you take industry leader Amazon out of the equation, growth is slowing towards single digits, dipping to 9.8% in 2027 – the lowest year-on-year rate of growth since WARC Media began monitoring spend.
Yet while European retail media spend growth is forecast to decelerate to single digits, the US market shows stronger momentum. WARC Media forecasts US retail media network spending will grow 13.6% in 2028 to reach $74.9bn.
But concentration of adspend remains a challenge. In 2025, Amazon captured 78.0% of all US retail media expenditure, with Walmart taking 7.5%, leaving just 14.5% for all other networks combined, according to Walrus Intelligence. In Europe, more than two-thirds of overall retail media spend went to Amazon in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.
In 2027, retail media will account for 55.8% of all media investment by alcoholic drinks brands globally, and 54.9% of the overall food category spend. However, in fast-growing categories like technology and electronics, retail media is set to only take 15.0% of total spend in 2027 – down from 16.2% in 2025.
In fact, many retail media networks are over-reliant on a small number of core advertisers. Nearly three-quarters (73.9%) of UK brands spend with three or fewer networks. WARC Media’s analysis found that among eight of the UK’s largest domestic networks, none achieves a third of revenue from the long tail – the bottom 50% of brands by spend.
Amazon’s non-retail advertising business – spanning Prime Video and Twitch – is projected to generate $6.7bn in 2027, surpassing Walmart’s total 2025 ad spend. As a standalone entity, it would be the world’s second-largest commerce media operation outside China, highlighting Amazon’s expanding dominance beyond traditional retail media.
Video-on-demand is poised to overtake retail media’s global advertising investment by 2028, according to WARC Media forecasts, with connected TV already representing 23% of retail media spend.
As commerce media enters a phase of slower growth and consolidation, it risks what tech author Cory Doctorow has called “enshittification”, where the digital experience declines as platforms look to fuel monetisation at the expense of users and business customers.
With consumer spending under pressure, it may be tempting for retail networks to dial up ad loads, for instance, in the UA, Amazon, The Home Depot, Macy’s and Walmart each serves 20+ ads per page on average, research has found.
To avoid this, brands are advised to build a frictionless on-platform experience that prioritises serving users, maximises ad relevance and minimises irrelevant ad clutter. Standardised measurement and arming AI tools with robust datasets and deep consumer understanding can also help.
WARC research suggests that retail media ads are good at converting existing demand, but bad at generating long-term outcomes. Brand-side organisational dysfunction and a poor understanding of the contextual requirements of commerce ad formats has led to creative shortcomings the industry must overcome to ensure the effectiveness of retail media campaigns.
Retail media’s most creative potential may exist in the space where channels meet – for instance, through partnerships with creators, and campaigns that span physical and digital touchpoints.
WARC Media head of content Alex Brownsell said: “The retail media landscape is maturing and consolidating, forcing marketers to rethink their approach. While retail media excels at converting existing demand, it underperforms on long-term brand building.
“Retailers face a delicate balancing act: growing ad revenue to boost margins without overwhelming shoppers with too many ad interruptions that compromise both shopper experience and campaign effectiveness. Success now depends on smart integration with other channels and finding the optimal path to sustainable results.”
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