UK shoppers are preparing to shake it up when it comes to festive spending, with the 2025 “golden quarter” set to be defined by early action, tighter planning, and more selective spending.
That is according to new insight from commerce media platform Cardlytics, based on transaction data from more than 23 million UK bank accounts, combined with nationally representative polling.
The Cardlytics State of Spend: Golden Quarter 2025 report forecasts major behavioural shifts across gifting, fashion, grocery, and key retail moments like Black Friday.
Featuring the new “state-of-spend sector snapshot” – a data tracker benchmarking and predicting performance across consumer categories – the report highlights growth in resale, beauty, and discounter grocery, alongside longer-term declines in electricals, department stores, and luxury fashion.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are still key moments for consumers, but their impact has softened as spending spreads across the season. In 2024, spend on the Saturday after Black Friday was up 27%, and the strongest single day of spend came a full week after Cyber Monday – showing that shoppers are changing how they respond to these fixed timed events.
Polling supports the shift. Only 11% of respondents said they make most of their purchases on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, while 47% planned to spread spend across the full promotional window. Nearly one-third (30%) will complete their festive shopping before Black Friday even begins.
The promotional ‘moment’ has evolved into a season long event – and the retailers who adapt their offer and presence accordingly are likely to outperform those still relying on a 24-hour spike, the report claims.
Meanwhile, the data also shows that consumer spending is concentrating around categories that feel meaningful or useful – and moving away from those that don’t.
For instance, books, beauty, and DIY have continued to grow across the golden quarter, while spend on electricals and general big-ticket items has declined. In 2024, electricals spend fell 6.2%, and department store spend declined for the second consecutive year.
Polling reflects a similar trend in sentiment: 61% of Brits say their gifting habits have changed in recent years. Over half (53%) plan to give something personal or meaningful, and 46% something practical. By contrast, only 11% will buy luxury gifts this year, and just 9% will purchase big-ticket items like electronics.
As the intention to gift with meaning increases, categories without a clear emotional or functional role are likely to be deprioritised – particularly among budget-conscious shoppers.
Fashion remains a core category for the festive season but spend across the industry is fragmenting. While online fast fashion remains well ahead of 2022 levels, growth has slowed sharply – from +22.7% in 2023 to +14.7% in 2024. High street fashion grew just 3.6% last year, and luxury and designer fashion dropped 18.7%.
At the same time, marketplaces and resale platforms are gaining ground. Nearly a third of shoppers say they will use marketplaces for fashion this season, and 18% plan to shop second-hand. More than 60% of consumers say they have either bought, sold or would consider resale – signalling that resale is now a mainstream part of how people shop.
Ultimately, loyalty in fashion is waning. Consumers are frequently mixing price points, platforms and formats; and are increasingly driven by value, sustainability and ease, rather than by trend or habit.
Grocery spend, meanwhile, is holding firm – but underneath the surface, behaviours are also diverging. Discounter grocery rose 4.8% in 2024, building on +18.9% growth the year before. Delivery and digital grocery saw the strongest gains, up 15.8% year-on-year. High-end grocery also grew, rising 6.7% in Q4.
But the big grocers plateaued – flatlining at -0.5% – and convenience grocery fell for the first time in three years, down 2.8%.
Polling reveals what is driving the shift: 46% of consumers prioritise lowest price, but a growing share also cite ease of delivery (33%) and clarity around pricing (29%). One in three (34%) are switching to cheaper formats, and one in four (27%) are shopping earlier to manage spend.
The hallmark festive shop is now a balancing act, and the formats that win will be those that help customers feel more in control of cost, time and quality in equal measure.
Cardlytics SVP UK partnerships Lucy Whittemore said: “We’ll see strong spending from consumers across the golden quarter, but it will be more considered, more distributed, and more value-driven than ever before.
“Shoppers are planning earlier, acting smarter, and backing brands that deliver on relevance, not just price. For marketers, it’s less about relying on key retail moments like Black Friday and more about sustaining engagement with customers throughout the entire festive period.”
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