Bellwether at 25: IPA hails rise of the 'trusted indicator'

The IPA is marking the 25th anniversary of its Bellwether Report with a special edition compendium capturing the evolution of UK marketing investment over the past two-and-a-half decades, featuring expert insights, category-specific analyses and economic overviews.

IPA director general Paul Bainsfair notes: “What began as a collaboration between the IPA and IHS Markit, now S&P Global, has become a trusted indicator, tracking UK marketing budgets and telling the story of an industry defined by resilience, creativity and responsiveness.”

Meanwhile, S&P Global Market Intelligence senior economist Joe Hayes, who is author of the Bellwether Report added: “The report serves as both a useful macroeconomic and microeconomic indicator. Not only does it give us critical insights into a vital channel of discretionary business spending, helping us to understand UK business investment appetite, but company survey responses also shed light on executive-level strategic decisions which will shape the financial performance of UK businesses in both the short term and long term.”

Hayes says so far this year has been as dramatic as any other. He explains: “UK businesses have had to contend with choppy waters in the first half of 2025. As we entered the new year, UK firms were in the midst of preparing for considerably higher payroll costs following the increases to National Insurance contributions and National Minimum Wage rates announced in the Autum Budget late last year.

“This was swiftly followed by the swathe of tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump, which saw global financial markets suffer steep losses, global uncertainty rise and many companies, particularly those which trade internationally, worry about a possible global economic slowdown. Against this backdrop, it’s unsurprising to see the UK economy being squeezed.”

Reflecting on the changing landscape of advertising, Liberty Sky Advisors founder Ian Whittaker, states that “the boardroom now realises the strength of brands is not just a ‘luxury’ or, worse, a cost but an investment. For me, the turning point was the inflation crisis of 2022-2024 which was a vast, unplanned experiment in showing how brand strength directly contributes to both the top and bottom line”.

For IPA president Karen Martin, who is CEO of BBH London, it is how strategic investment can make a difference, that is one of the stand outs.

Martin comments: “Our mantra at BBH has always been, when others zig, zag. Similarly, one of the findings from analysis of the IPA Effectiveness Databank is that when others fall silent, your voice can resonate louder; time and again, history shows that brands that invest in building their brand during challenging periods are the ones best positioned to lead when conditions improve.

“By charting the ebbs and flows, both in terms of companies’ overall marketing spend intentions and financial confidence levels, the IPA Bellwether Report keeps us ahead of the curve. Its insights aren’t just informative, they’re actionable. At its core, the Bellwether gives us the confidence to invest in creativity.”

The Bellwether at 25 compendium also explores the transformation of various marketing sectors charted within the report, including events, digital and PR.

EssenceMediacom VP of Analytics Bill Doris discusses the evolution of market research, acknowledging: “The rise of the Internet, the explosion of mobile device usage and the ubiquity of social media have fundamentally altered the ways we gather, interpret, and act on data.”

Rapp UK chief executive Gabby Ludzker, meanwhile, notes that in spite of seismic shifts in geo-political and the economy, “direct marketing has shown remarkable consistency, adapting to the times while maintaining its core strength: targeted, measurable customer engagement”.

Bainsfair concludes the compendium by saying: “Marketing remains essential to UK economic health, and the Bellwether Report will continue to serve as a bell, barometer and benchmark for our industry. Here’s to the next 25 years.”