Bellwether: Rise of precision, accountability, and results

New figures from the Q1 IPA Bellwether Report reveal the majority of UK firms revised their total marketing budgets down, in the first overall decline in four years, while ploughing more spend into direct marketing channels.

While the report draws its own conclusions, Decision Marketing quizzes industry chiefs for their take on what it all means for the sector and beyond.

For Outra chief revenue officer of retail media Graham Field, the report makes it clear: the era of broad, unmeasured activity is being eclipsed by a shift toward precision, accountability, and results. Growth in direct marketing spend is more than a trend — it’s a strategic recalibration, he claims.

Field comments: “What we’re witnessing is not just a budgetary response, but a structural evolution. Marketing effectiveness is being redefined by the quality of data, not the quantity of spend. As traditional market research temporarily contracts, organisations are increasingly seeking smarter, more adaptive ways to understand and engage audiences. And as AI matures, the expectation is no longer just faster insight — but real-time, actionable intelligence.

“This is where granular, household-level data becomes transformative. Knowing who your customer is has always mattered. Now, knowing when they’re most receptive — and being able to act on that moment with relevance and precision — is a game changer. Home mover signals, for instance, are more than just demographic shifts; they’re powerful predictors of intent, behaviour, and need. When you combine these with robust household profiles, the result is marketing that doesn’t just reach people — it resonates.

“Winning brands will be those who can deliver this kind of intelligence — enabling segmentation that’s not just sharper, but more strategic. Engagement that’s not just personal, but timely. And outcomes that aren’t just measured, but maximised.”

Meanwhile, RTB House head of sales development and efficiency Aleksandra Drozda urges marketers to rethink their plans.

She explains: “Now is the time to review the solutions used to enhance campaigns, looking at programmatic and AI-driven tools that maximise engagement and ensure ROI.

“These scalable, performance-based advertising strategies are available to ensure brands achieve measurable results, remaining effective regardless of remaining effective regardless of the economic environment. By integrating Gen AI to speed up processes that can be optimised at scale, marketers can ensure they thrive, not only now, but also as budgets rebound in 2026.”

RAAS LAB chief commercial officer Guy Jackson agrees. He comments: “As advertisers navigate the challenges of rising operational costs and new economic pressures, the objective is clear: achieve greater impact with leaner budgets. This does not mean scaling back activity but instead being smarter with it. Moving away from the traditional broad-stroke approach to more precise delivery, with enhanced engagement and yielding better returns.

“As respondents to the IPA report highlighted, this is being propelled by the next wave of AI for efficient media performance. The technology can analyse data at the impression level, to ensure that the right user is reached at the optimal time, with hyper-relevant messaging tailored to resonate deeply and drive measurable results.

“By investing in AI-led creativity, advertisers will stay ahead of the curve and distinguish their brands in a crowded marketplace with receptive consumers – unlocking improved outcomes during this period and beyond.”

The AI theme is also taken up by DoubleVerify SVP and managing director of EMEA Nick Reid, who says: “AI-led media efficiency is revolutionising digital advertising by safeguarding media from low-quality content and enhancing overall performance. This trend is confirmed in the report, which highlights the sustained high demand for AI solutions in advertising.

“Custom bidding algorithms are a key component of this transformation. By processing signals such as first-party data and offline sales insights, they dynamically optimise media strategies, ensuring ad spend supports brand-specific outcomes. As tailored AI solutions become more widely available, across open web and walled garden environments like social, they will lead the way for brands aiming for stronger performance and more meaningful business results.”

However, Adverity chief operating officer Harriet Durnford-Smith reckons that for all the industry’s talk about AI, very few are walking the walk. She maintains that AI’s intuitive, natural-language intelligence still isn’t being utilised to its full potential. In an ideal world, businesses could be harnessing this technology by turning their data ecosystems into accessible, actionable insights for their entire team.

Durnford-Smith adds: “We’re seeing organisations across the industry increasingly deploy AI technology and platforms to improve operational efficiency, yet this is too often marred by inaccurate data, which prevents key stakeholders from making smarter decisions and driving any real impact.”

Even so, LiveRamp VP of brands for the UK and EMEA Alexia Nakad maintains that data-driven marketing is the future: “What matters in this climate is driving positive, measurable business results. This does not mean resorting to quick-fix spending aimed at short-term gains only. Marketers should focus on a strategic, data-driven approach that creates a comprehensive and measurable view of their audiences’ path to purchase.

“This not only helps optimise media across the customer journey for better results, but also provides a clear picture of what is performing, return on advertising spend and incremental return on advertising spend, to understand what is driving customer growth. Marketers can then use these results as proof of success to give their C-suite confidence that investment in marketing drives the outcomes required for business success moving forward.”

Over the coming months, the power of data-driven strategies will also be key for Intuit Mailchimp head of EMEA Jim Rudall. He comments: “The question is how can marketers do more with less? Above all, they must be highly strategic in how they connect with their audience. Data is key to segment their targets and tailor messaging accordingly, unlocking true personalisation at scale.

“One key strategy marketers should harness to boost their direct marketing and sales promotions is SMS outreach, which offers unrivalled immediacy and impact, especially when used to complement email campaigns as part of a multichannel approach.

“Timely promotions or reminders such as personalised ‘annual sales’ or ‘back-in-stock’ messages are powerful mechanisms to attract attention in what is a competitive market. And after all, nobody wants to miss out on a good deal.

“The key is to meet consumers where they are, with messaging that feels relevant and responsive. With direct marketing on the rise for the second consecutive quarter, it is important that marketers harness the power of SMS in order to maximise ROI on their budgets in the months ahead.”

Even so, Joan London managing director Tom Ghiden believes the report shows the return of short-term fixes. He said: “The decline in marketing budgets is reminiscent of storms already weathered. It makes me feel nostalgic, but not the warm and fuzzy type of nostalgia, more the anxiety-inducing type.

“That being said, the industry is creative and can adapt – whether it be pandemics or past recessions – we’re still here, live and kicking. And even better, we can use past experiences to overcome the temporary budget concerns currently faced due to tariffs.

“With this in mind, brands should be standing firm with their main media advertising budgets. The continued decline in this area over the past few quarters tells us that brands are increasingly favouring short-term wins over long-term brand building. This is understandable, but long-term gains and solidity still needs to be a key focus for advertisers.”

Yet, ultimately, says Channel Factory UK managing director Rob Blake, lower spend does not need to mean lower ambition for advertising.

He concludes: “The standout growth in direct marketing this quarter reflects how brands are shifting toward formats that promise immediacy, campaign control and clear ROI. A highly strategic approach to online advertising that takes into account context whilst also ensuring brand suitability is what makes media budgets work harder, and delivers both performance and brand equity.

“In the media industry where culture moves at the speed of YouTube Shorts and viewer attention is fractured, your brand showing up with the right content, to the right audience, at the right time is what will drive higher engagement and build a stronger connection with your audience. Brands are already successfully doing this on YouTube and getting 80% higher ROAS than on general online video ads.

“The Bellwether report is clear: confidence may be down, but forward-looking investment plans are holding firm for investment in areas that convert into real value.”