Ad revenue to top $1.14trn as sector keeps on trucking

Global advertising revenue is continuing to defy the threats of US tarrifs, economic slowdown and the war in Ukraine, and is expected to reach $1.14 trillion in 2025, with commerce media and social revenues leading the charge.

That is according to WPP Media’s global media trends report, This Year Next Year, which reveals that the industry is getting more complex with forces of creative destruction at work: video streaming is cannibalising linear television, retail media is capturing budget from legacy digital channels, AI-powered engines are beginning to reshape search behaviour, and creator-driven content is continuing its displacement of professionally produced media.

Overall, advertising revenue will grow 8.8% in 2025 to $1.14 trillion, with 7.1% growth in 2026 (this excludes US political advertising). This will reach $1.22 trillion in 2026 and is projected to grow to $1.55 trillion by 2030. 2025 figures have been revised up since June and are higher than expected due to diminished impacts of tariffs and the AI investment boom.

In the UK, ad revenue will grow 8.0% in 2025 to $58.4bn and in 2026 the UK market will be worth $62.5bn, growing by7% next year, remaining the biggest market in Europe and representing nearly a quarter (24.2%) of all European advertising money.

When it comes to individual channels, globally, TV will reach $167.5bn in 2025 and $171.1 billion in 2026, although the channel’s share of global ad revenue has declined from 15.8% in 2024 to 14.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, streaming’s share of total TV revenue will climb from 26.2% in 2025 to 29.6% in 2026.

Sports rights will remain the battleground for TV’s future, significantly impacting ad growth in coming years, with advertising growth in the media and entertainment category forecast to be 2.6% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026.

Social media revenues will reach $413bn in 2025, growing 12.8% before advancing to $445.4bn in 2026, with growth of 7.8%. The channel’s share of total ad revenue has expanded from 34.8% in 2024 to 36.1% in 20253, and is forecast to hit 6.4% in 2026.

However, social media companies’ ad revenues are expected to slow in growth due to anticipated effects from age bans and more time spent on using AI chatbots.

Over at commerce media, which includes retail media and vertical markets media, revenues will account for 15.6% of total global ad revenue in 2025, reaching $178.2bn and surpassing total TV ad revenue for the first time.

This figure includes revenue from retail media; travel services media (primarily Booking.com, Expedia, Tripadvisor), and financial services media networks (including banks like JPMorgan Chase, BNPL providers like Klarna, and digital payment companies like AliPay, PayPal, and Mercado Pago).

Furthermore, travel media has grown 22.9% in 2025 to reach $3.3bn, with expected growth in 2026 projected at 9.2% to $3.6bn, while financial services media networks are projected to reach $699m in 2025, forecast to grow 25% in 2026 to $873.8m.

The UK commerce media market, meanwhile, will hit $12bn in 2030, doubling on 2025 revenue figures.

In 2025, search advertising revenue will reach $244.9bn, up 10.2% over 2024 and representing 21.4% of total ad revenue. Growth will remain at 10.3% in 2026, before decelerating through 2030. This includes pure revenues from search engines excluding sponsored listing on Amazon, or on TikTok e.g.

When the report looks at advertising activity across vertical search sites like Yelp/Reddit/YouTube/Pinterest/TikTok/Amazon, spend is forecast to be close to $400bn in 2026, with pureplay search accounting for 59% of that figure (including 2.4% of AI Overview ad revenue and other generative engine search advertising).

Commerce search will account for 34% of this figure and social search 4% of revenue.

Finally, to OOH/cinema with OOH forecast to reach $54.7bn in 2025, up 6.3% year-over-year. By 2030, the OOH market is expected to exceed $71.5bn globally, with DOOH representing nearly half of the total, as programmatic DOOH is scaling rapidly across markets. Cinema advertising is expected to grow 5.5% to $2.2bn in 2025.