Bellwether reaction: Are one-to-one channels now king?

The IPA’s Bellwether Report, now in its 25^th year, is one of the most hotly anticipated barometers of how the advertising and marketing industry is performing each quarter, giving the profession crucial analysis on which disciplines are hot, and which are not.

And while the IPA has long championed the role that brand advertising plays to future proof brand health – backed by the likes of Les Binet and Peter Field, who have consistently claimed 60% of marketing investment should be allocated to long-term brand-building and 40% to short-term activation – the times they are a-changing.

Even the most empassioned adman would be hard-pressed to prove that traditional advertising agencies are no longer the super-powers they once were; these days, AI, technology and data-driven strategies are increasingly taking a larger share of budgets. This week’s Bellwether draws its own conclusions, but what do those at the coalface believe? Decision Marketing investigates.

First up, is Medialab strategy director Harry Darlington, who says: “Given the ongoing turbulent UK economy, and other macro factors at play within our industry and beyond, many marketers are, understandably, tempted to focus their adspend on what would typically be defined as ‘performance’ channels – those that drive a more immediate return.

“But, as we know it’s all about balance. Binet’s and Field’s work is backed by rigorous analysis of market data and will set brands in good stead.

“However, consistency and clear measurement using the triangulation of experimentation, direct attribution and econometric modelling are essential in optimising spend towards sustainable business growth.”

For Outra chief revenue officer Graham Field, the uptick in budgets is a welcome respite for the industry following years of uncertainty – and the innovation that followed – centred on how to connect with consumers while prioritising privacy.

He adds: “As the report alludes, the need for more precise audience targeting has driven investment in smarter, more data-led approaches. Understanding consumers at a granular level, such as through household signals, offers brands a unique opportunity to engage with their audiences during key life moments.

“Brands that harness this predictive data gain a competitive edge, as it provides the opportunity to get ahead of the decision-making process, enabling them to reach the right people at precisely the right time.”

Meanwhile, Krow Kinetic CEO Samantha Smith comments: “It is good to see that UK marketing budgets rebounded in Q2, reversing Q1’s decline. Total budgets grew at the fastest rate in a year too, driven by strong increases in sales promotions and direct marketing, suggesting the continuing need to drive revenue.

“Confidence has improved slightly, although broader economic uncertainty persists. Events and PR saw modest gains, while main media spend stabilised. AI adoption, easing inflation, and digital marketing expansion were seen as key opportunities, despite ongoing threats from global instability, rising costs, and recruitment challenges.

“However, it is still a tough world out there. Financial prospects improved marginally, but employment sentiment remained cautious amid cost pressures and cautious planning.”

However, Chartered Institute of Marketing chief executive Chris Daly urges the industry to look at the bigger picture. He explains: “What we’re witnessing is a rebalance, rather than a full rebound. Performance-led channels like direct and digital marketing remain robust, but there’s also renewed interest in channels that build brand equity over time – especially with video.

“Marketers are recognising that sustainable growth hinges on consistency, creativity, and connection – factors which are amplified when data, purpose, and technology work together. As the macro picture gradually improves, marketers who maintain a clear vision and a steady hand will lead the charge into recovery.”

For Admoai chief executive and founder Ignacio Gutierrez, the increased investment in digital channels is an encouraging sign, especially as this is consistent with what his ad network is already witnessing from clients.

Gutierrez explains: “Brands are clearly prioritising more direct, dynamic targeting with channels that reach driven and engaged audiences. We’ve seen this with mobility – it’s become an increasingly powerful channel for consumers, and will help brands make the most of their adspend by targeting high value customers with high-performing media inventory.

“The customer journey is no longer an isolated, digital experience; it happens in real time as people move through the world. Directly targeting audiences through new channels, refined by location and custom profiles, unlocks more effective, measurable results, particularly as brands focus on disciplined spending.”

With financial caution remaining high, Fox Agency managing director UK & Europe Rachel Lofthouse believes marketing teams are under increasing pressure to prove their direct contribution to growth. yet, the short-term need to manage risk and internal pessimism is mixed with long-term optimism.

Lofthouse adds: “With B2B buyers doing significantly more research before they even engage with a brand, let alone purchase from one, we’re seeing brands increasingly invest in hyper-personalisation. Many are using AI to not only process vast amounts of data and track competitors, but to spot unmet or emerging customer needs at scale and speed.

“The ability to create differentiation at scale is vital, particularly in growth industries such as Industry 4.0, SaaS and Automotive, all of which rely on complex solutions.

“Marketing must play a role in simplifying those complexities, being present earlier to give buyers something helpful, that is right for them. These industries also face the fiercest competition, so spend must be focused on grabbing buyers’ attention through thought leadership and a clear direction of ROI.

“Most importantly, marketing efforts should not stop after a customer buys. Instead, they must leverage personalisation to ensure customers get the most from a product or service, which in turn will drive retention and opportunities for upsell. It is also a powerful way to build customer testimonials, which are ever more important as the truth of information is heavily scrutinised and authentic advocacy is the panacea.”

Even so, Adform UK country manager Phil Acton reckons that to navigate the current headwinds, advertisers are having to prioritise “effective media”.

He adds: “Bellwether respondents highlight the value of direct targeting in online channels, and the use of AI-driven automation to boost efficiency, reduce costs, and deliver the scale, speed, and insight needed to optimise campaigns.

“As advertisers consider which channels will drive business-specific outcomes, it’s essential to consider the media mix as a whole. While channels like OOH and audio had a reported decline, this does not align with the interest we’ve seen from clients in testing these environments.

“Top-of-funnel channels, including premium video, are evolving rapidly, and technology is uniting insight across them to close the traditional gap between brand-building and performance.

“With consumer journeys increasingly fragmented, brands that embrace this complexity, ensuring consistency and relevant campaigns across all touchpoints, will succeed. Identity-driven solutions are key, enabling better measurement and optimisation, and more meaningful engagement at scale.”

Finally to Armadillo CEO James Ray, who is also IPA chair for England & Wales. He welcomes the positive shift in the Bellwether Report, with marketing budgets expanding despite (or even because of) ongoing uncertainly, and flux in the general economic picture.

Ray concludes: “As a life-long direct marketer, it’s especially encouraging to see a strong uptick in direct marketing investment, as tech and AI capabilities continue to accelerate. I believe this reflects businesses backing the growing potential of one-to-one channels to support brand-building and long-term customer value.”