Global adspend takes a whack as Trump volatility bites

US president Donald Trump’s vow to make America wealthy again with his erratic tariffs has backfired for the global advertising industry – as well as the States – with WPP Media downgrading its forecasts for global ad spend growth this year.

However, according to the agency group’s latest biannual forecast report, “This Year, Next Year”, global advertising investment will still rise 6% this year to $1.08 trillion, not as projected in December, when growth was forecast to be 7.7%.

A downgrade was predicted in a WARC study from March, which found global adspend was on course to grow 6.7% this year to $1.15trn, a cut of almost one percentage point from its November forecast due to growing market volatility. A further cut of 0.7pp was applied to 2026, downrating growth to 6.3%.

WPP Media has also downgraded future projections; the agency now forecasts a global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% between 2025 and 2030. Previously, it had charted growth of 6.4% over the next five years.

Even so, WPP Media president of business intelligence Kate Scott-Dawkins reckons the fear of a potential economic hit from Trump’s tariff policies, rather than responses to real impacts, had so far been the main driver of client spending shifts. “Uncertainty is the key thing,” she added. “Obviously there’s a lot of the year still to come, but I see that sense of volatility as a drag on most markets and especially the US.”

Meanwhile, the UK’s ad market growth forecast has also been clipped due in part to the upcoming regulations on food and drink advertising.

Last month, the Government confirmed that the deadline for the new Less Healthy Food (LHF) legislation had been pushed back until January, however, 20 organisations representing advertisers, broadcasters and online platforms have already signed a voluntary and unilateral commitment to the October start.

The report predicts the British market will now grow by 6.5% compared with 2024 – down from 7% – to reach an estimated $55bn (£42.4 bn) in 2025.

On the plus side, the retail media boom looks likely to continue at a pace, projected to reach $169.6bn globally in 2025 and make up nearly a fifth (18%) of all ad spend globally by 2030.

In the UK, retail media is the second fastest growing channel in 2025 (after streaming TV), and is expected to grow 17.7% reaching £4.6bn and exceeding total TV advertising revenue in 2025.

In fact, digital only advertising, such as search, retail media, and social/other digital is expected to take over the UK ad market, making up a huge 81.4% share of the total advertising revenue in the UK this year.

Search is expected to grow by 7.1% to £16.7bn in 2025 and is expected to account for 39.4% of all advertising revenue. The channel is likely to evolve with the increasing influence of AI on search behaviours.

Meanwhile, OOH growth is expected to slow by 4.0% in 2025 driven by what the agency calls “tough comparables” in the first half; data-driven digital OOH though is expected to grow faster at 5.3% and forecast to make up 67.3% of all OOH revenue in 2025. This dominance is expected to grow, reaching a projected 72.3% by 2030.

In the audio advertising market, growth is projected to hit 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. Digital audio, including podcasts, is expected to grow by 8.1% and traditional audio is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2025.

And, despite efforts to expand digital offerings, print continues its decline, with magazine advertising revenue is expected to decline by 6.3%, faster than newspaper ad revenue, which is expected to decline by 5.6% in 2025.

Finally, cinema is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, and to stay steady, making up around 0.3% to 0.4% of the total ad market through 2030.

Bizarrely, given its continued influence, direct mail spend is not included in the report.