Many in the marketing sector may still view the rise of AI as a threat but the technology is not only driving industry growth from multiple angles it is the driving force behind a huge surge in global adspend, which is forecast to grow 11.9% to reach $1.34trn (£1.02trn) this year, despite consumer caution.
That is according to the WARC Media Global Ad Spend Forecast Q3 2026 update, which reveals that new tech businesses are investing to acquire customers and build brands, while established companies are spend heavily to compete in an increasingly crowded market.
Simultaneously, AI tools are enhancing targeting, asset creation, and campaign optimisation – boosting ROI and fuelling further investment.
The double-figure rise in adspend comes on the back of strong 10.0% growth in 2024 and 2025, despite consumer pressure and geopolitical uncertainty. In addition to the significant corporate AI investment, major events including the Winter Olympics, the Fifa World Cup, and US mid-term elections are playing a key role.
However, while the global economy has remained resilient to date, further escalations of global tensions pose potential downside risks.
When it comes to channels, social media, search and retail media are three of the biggest for ad investment; together they are expected to account for 66.4% of total global ad spend in 2026, rising to 70.0% in 2028.
Social media is set to register the strongest growth in adspend this year, up 21.3% to $394.6bn, and is on course to exceed $500bn in 2028.
Video on-demand (15.1% to $48.4bn), retail media (14.3% to $202.1bn), search (14.2% to $295.7bn) and digital OOH (13.7% to $21.7bn) will also see double-digit increases this year. Performance channels, which can adapt quickly to changing conditions, continue to benefit as uncertainty becomes the new norm.
Meanwhile, the fastest growing product channel this year is forecast to be technology and electronics, rising 20.7% compared with 2025, followed by travel and transport (19.3%) and automotive (17.8%). Social media is expected to account for 40.2% of all tech and electronics spend in 2026.
However, the industry needs to make hay while the sun shines. Adspend growth is expected to moderate in 2027, rising 8.4% to $1.46trn, reflecting tougher comparables and a normalisation from the exceptionally strong growth seen in recent years.
In 2028, adspend will increase by a further 7.9% to $1.57trn. Even so, this still puts the market on course to be 2.3 times larger than it was a decade ago in 2019.
AI is also opening new destinations for advertising. As generative search and AI assistants become gateways to product discovery and purchasing, adspend will follow – fundamentally reshaping where consumers encounter brands and where advertisers invest.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 59.7% of global adspend (excluding China) this year – equivalent to $659.6bn. This is predicted to rise to 61.5%, or $804.1bn, in 2028.
Adspend per capita varies dramatically across global markets. Developed economies like the US ($1,395 per capita forecast for 2026), UK ($935), Austria ($850), and Switzerland ($825) show significantly higher advertising intensity, while China ($170), Brazil ($110), and India ($13) combine lower per-capita spending with massive consumer populations – highlighting substantial growth potential as these emerging markets mature.
Head of WARC media data Suzy Young said: “These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others.”
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